The Spanish authorities have recognized the importance of launching the production system as soon as possible. The question of the exact data on infection remains acute - how many people were actually infected. The correctness of current statistics is being discussed more and more.
What we have today:
Finally, Spain began to see the light at the end of the tunnel. The isolation seems to be working. As of April 15, Spain had 510 deaths, the lowest since March 23. In addition, the number of coronavirus infections detected on Friday was 157,022 (on Saturday - 161,852), which is 3% more than the previous day, which is the smallest increase since the beginning of the crisis. And everything seems to indicate that this data will continue to improve in the coming weeks.
In any case, the Spanish authorities do not relax
Since we are still at the level of deterrence warning. Yes, the effectiveness of confinement makes one think about the next step: what should be the gradual exit from confinement? First of all, the health and well-being of all should be a priority issue, it is important that the Spanish authorities get the productive system back on track as soon as possible.
To do this, in addition to the fact that Spain knows the number of infected and how resistant they are to the virus, the authorities must take into account the category of people who best overcome the disease. In this regard, create mechanisms that help us closely monitor the real situation during progressive release from prison.
Study of the Imperial College of Spain
Research from Imperial College has already pointed in this direction - to release the youngest from prison. An investigation revealed last week estimates that Spain could have up to 7 million people with the virus, of which 50% with undiagnosed cases of infection.
Now the Department of Health has officially recognized that its vision is aligned with that of Imperial College. According to their estimates: 15 out of 16 cases of coronavirus in Spain (93.75%) have not yet been detected. If this belief was confirmed, the number of people actually infected would be more than 2.5 million.
Large-scale investigation within three weeks
The Spanish government has already launched a large-scale investigation to find out the real extent of the infections. Thus, an epidemiological sample of 62,400 people will begin next week, from April 20, and will last for three weeks.
For their part, countries like Germany are developing studies to test how resistant people who have overcome the virus are to the new infection. In addition, at the request of Isabel Ayuso, the Spanish executive has coordinated the launch of an "application" in several autonomous communities that allows tracking the infected.
Identification of people with antibodies and people with asymptomatic course of the disease using a mobile application
Countries like Germany are developing studies to test how resistant people who have overcome the virus are to the new infection. In addition, the Spanish executive coordinated the launch of a mobile application in several autonomous communities that allows you to track the infected and which is based on the fact that a project was launched in Madrid, at the request of Isabel Ayuso.
Thus, the flexibility of control measures must always be increased in parallel with the performance of large-scale tests, both for detecting people with antibodies and people with asymptomatic course. And also to implement an organization system based on similar tests they have launched in countries like China or South Korea using a mobile app.
Collecting statistics using traffic light colors
This principle will work in an infected tracking application. This system categorizes the population, while simultaneously monitoring the disease and developing effective treatments:
- Green will be for those under the age of 40 or those who have already passed the disease
- Yellow - for those who have not contracted the virus between the ages of 40 and 65
- Red - for the most vulnerable, the elderly, and those who are symptomatic or infected
Children should already be allowed to go for a walk
- Given the situation in which we find ourselves, the Spanish government believes that children should already be allowed to go for walks with an adult or to have individual outdoor sports activities. Of course, always keeping a safe distance from other people.
- Now it is allowed to all EU countries and it makes sense to do the same in our country, considering that in Spain children and young people have the lowest mortality rate. In fact, we should never have taken isolation measures such as those taken in Spain for children.
Economic recovery instead of absolute isolation
In this sense, we see other countries pursuing policies different from those in Spain - less strict with young people and more cautious with older people. This is the case with Sweden, which has not implemented isolation measures for minors or closed schools and has always focused on protecting the elderly.
Recently other countries such as Denmark or Norway have joined these measures, which once again shows that a different approach can also be effective. This is not about the absolute isolation of the entire population, but about rebuilding the economy while protecting the most affected, the oldest.
We should never have taken any isolation measures such as those taken in Spain for children.
Insulation must be removed within two weeks for people under the age of 40
Following this line, isolation should be removed within two weeks for people under the age of 40 without pre-existing diseases. This category of people should be able to go to work and study.
Under 40 is an age range with very low mortality. Almost only in cases with previous serious pathologies, this category of people can get symptoms of the virus. But now, if people are exposed to infection, it will take place in a more controlled environment by health services capable of treating those infected.
According to Update No. 71 - Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) of the Ministry of Health, only more than 37 people under the age of 40 have been affected by the disease - among more than 15,000 deaths
This is not life as we knew it, but it is a step towards a normal life
The Gobierno de España is discussing that, in this context, an urgent ruling will give priority to those under 40 with the highest degree of mobility. This is the scenario in which they can:
- Use your own transport
- Use public transport
Move along the street, but always wearing a mask and controlling the distance with other people
Shops, restaurants should be open - the authorities emphasize. All institutions will be disinfected first. Further, these institutions will first be visited by people under the age of 40. It will be a strange world. However, this approach will not only save older people who stay at home. This approach will save most people and small businesses, whose income is suspended. The society needs to restart the economy and the first phase will take place with the help of people under the age of 40.
For senior citizens, the measures should be different, the forecast for the exit from quarantine: July-August
This measure is created in order to create group immunity: first among the young population under 40, then - for the older population. First, we have to be more careful and support all restrictions. Thus, in the case of people between the ages of 40 and 65, they must stay at home for at least one more month, after the completion of the quarantine for the younger ones.
It is assumed that the youngest will be immunized within the next month. People in the 40 to 65 age group also play a key role in driving the economy, but in their case, it is advisable to be more careful.
The case of the highest-risk group, the oldest citizens, is more complex. Despite the fact that the only sure way of protection for people aged 65 to 75 when coming out of isolation is having a vaccine, this population group can begin to leave their quarantine no earlier than a month after the previous age group. Around July or August.
At the time, people over 65 would be much less likely to become infected if they were isolated. Although they are not at the same risk group as people over 75, as the average age of deaths in Spain is 80.
Age group with the highest risk of infection
As for people over 75 years old, this is the age group with the highest risk of contracting coronavirus infection. This group is also highly susceptible to other illnesses such as the common flu. As long as there is no vaccine, there are no reasonable guarantees of their safety in contact with the rest of society. Extreme precautions must be taken with this age group.
The system of reintegration of the population into active life will last more than five months
As we can see, this progressive system of reintegration of the population into active life will take place in about four stages and will last more than five months. Most likely, we will not be able to restore a relatively normal situation until the fall.
We still have to use different methods to monitor the disease. We'll have to keep using masks. It will still be necessary to keep highly vulnerable people isolated from the COVID-19 virus.
In Spain, it is understood that the division of the population by age during this period of reintegration is discriminatory. However, it is also true that discrimination has already been applied against those over 75 and those under 30, when there were almost no fatalities in this group.
It is time to reverse the policy of regulating the disease situation, to protect the elderly and to give freedom to minors. Of course, these are steps that can lead to mistakes or possible additional outbreaks of the disease (fortunately with a health system already prepared).